Our Insights
Market Synopsis – March 2025
Over the past decade European equity returns have lagged the US as the region’s economy failed to keep pace with US growth. Now though, many of the headwinds that have hobbled Europe over the past decade are ebbing. With valuations reflecting pessimism, just a moderate improvement in growth could be all that is required for a medium term turn around in European equity prices.
Market Synopsis – February 2025
Just last weekend Trump kicked off his second trade war by announcing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and a more modest 10% on China and Canadian energy. While the timing and implementation of these tariffs remains uncertain, one thing is for sure, if they are implemented unchanged they will raise the effective US tariff rate to levels not seen since 1946.
Market Synopsis – January 2025
The prevailing consensus among the investment community is for the S&P 500 to rise a further 10% in 2025. We believe the return to materially lower. Our out of consensus view for equity returns is based on weakening US employment and housing sector metrics. While the specifics of Trump’s tariffs and tax cuts are yet to be seen, judging from history, they will more than likely dampen economic activity in 2025.
Market Synopsis – December 2024
We analyse the four pillars of the Trump administration’s proposed policies to determine what sort of impact one can expect on the global economy, and answer the question: Is the “Trump Trade” overblown?
Market Synopsis – November 2024
With a gross national savings close to double that of most other major economies, China must find ways to stimulate its economy if it is to learn from 1990s Japan and avoid its presently deflationary path.
Market Synopsis – October 2024
The S&P 500 is currently experiencing a “Wile E. Coyote” moment. Like the coyote, the economy has run off the cliff, but rather than noticing the canyon below and falling, investors are entranced by the shiny light of Fed easing.
Market Synopsis – September 2024
Last month global news was awash with headlines that the Sahm rule had been triggered, and that a US recession was already upon us. While we disagree with the broader financial media’s assertions, we do still believe that the US economy is cooling. Given that equity markets typically peak months before the onset of a recession, we detail how we have positioned our clients investments in response.
Market Synopsis – August 2024
A weak US jobs report led to the Nasdaq falling a cumulative 5.8% in the two trading sessions since. The result of market participants coming to terms with the possibility of a US recession. While investors are in the depths of despair, we share our guide to identifying market bottoms so that you can use the widespread market panic to your advantage.