Our Insights
Market Synopsis – November 2025
As we enter November, the tug-of-war between AI-driven automation and the labour market is becoming increasingly evident. While the Fed has cut rates (and paused quantitative tightening), capital allocation remains heavily weighted toward AI, data centres, and automation, leaving human hiring on the sidelines of priority. So far, the market has happily rewarded the decision. This raises an important question: Will future monetary easing revive employment, or simply accelerate the shift from human to machine?
As the latest in a series of catalysts powering the AI trade, investors are questioning whether we are nearing a peak. The trend of speculative bets in the fringes of tech, such as quantum computing, could provide one of these early warning systems.
Market Synopsis – October 2025
AI investment has so far kept the U.S. economy afloat, cushioning the weak labour markets by boosting household wealth. History shows that markets often falter once CAPEX intensity peaks, as earnings momentum fades and investment slows. Today’s AI cycle may be even more fragile: chips are short-lived, largely imported, and labour demand remains weak, potentially as a structural consequence of AI adoption. If the CAPEX loop between hyperscalers and chipmakers breaks, so too could the rally underpinning U.S. equities.
Market Synopsis – September 2025
European fiscal policy has spent the last decade focused on austerity: cutting spending and limiting deficits to stabilise debt and borrowing costs. The US, by contrast, has been the figurehead of profligacy, running large deficits and sustaining high levels of government spending. These approaches have shaped the respective economies and arguably influenced the significant differentials in equity valuations. Recent indicators suggest that we may see a shift in this fiscal polarity, with European equities poised to benefit.
Market Synopsis – August 2025
Despite markets continuing to all-time highs, the proverbial cracks appearing in the economy are starting to become harder to ignore. All the more so after the recent job data release and subsequent firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics head, Erika McEntarfer, by President Trump. AI-driven optimism has kept equity momentum alive for now, but investment in this new-age tech may be becoming dangerously anchored in pure speculation, rather than fundamentals.
Market Synopsis – July 2025
The last month has seen a plethora of global geopolitical and economic events, many of them seeming unrelated. Below, we summarise some of the most relevant developments and their potential investment implications:
Market Synopsis – June 2025
The AI trade has led to a continued rise of the Magnificent Seven and bolstered the “US exceptionalism”. However, 2025 may have revealed a fault in the thesis.
Market Synopsis – May 2025
The AI trade has led to a continued rise of the Magnificent Seven and bolstered the “US exceptionalism”. However, 2025 may have revealed a fault in the thesis.
Market Synopsis – April 2025
A weak economy often needs one final shock to push it over the edge. In the case of the US economy, we believe that Trump’s tariffs, and the ensuing trade war, might just represent such a shock.