by John Sparks | Jul 2, 2026 | News
A 2-year retrospective on the US Halfway through 2024, the 3-month average of the US unemployment rate rose 50 basis points above its 12-month low, triggering the Sahm rule. Post-1970 this breach has always, without fail, led to an eventual recession. Fast forward to...
by John Sparks | Jun 4, 2026 | News
Changing of the guard Following the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve (“Fed”) Chair, the US central bank may soon see its most significant philosophical shift since the Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”). Ignoring the short-term policy action that may...
by John Sparks | May 7, 2026 | News
2026: The year of scarcity It is hardly an exaggeration to say that the primary driver of equities year-to-date has been a scarcity trade, most notably in oil and AI infrastructure. Figure 1 – Energy and IT have been the main drivers of upward revisions to earnings...
by John Sparks | Apr 8, 2026 | News
The Iranian conflict: One month later At the eleventh hour, the US and Iran have agreed to a temporary ceasefire, with escalating attacks to be held off for two weeks. The equity market has so far soared on the announcement, with Brent crude futures free falling....