by alex@integrityam.co.za | Apr 3, 2025 | News
Weakness expected in US consumption Since 2020 personal consumption has accounted for more than four-fifths of all GDP growth. Now though, this key growth driver is beginning to falter as US consumption data indicates falling real restaurant sales, building materials...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Mar 5, 2025 | News
Europe’s abating headwinds Over the past decade, European equity returns have lagged the US. The Euro Stoxx 50 has returned an annualised 4.4% while the S&P 500 has delivered 11.1%. Much of the past decade’s European equity market underperformance has been the...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Feb 6, 2025 | News
Trump’s terrif(ying)ic tariffs Not two weeks into his presidency and Trump has already kicked off his second trade war by announcing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and a more modest 10% on China and Canadian energy. While his campaign promises ranged from “ending...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Jan 9, 2025 | News
An out of consensus outlook for 2025 At present, the consensus outlook of the investment community is for the S&P 500 to rise a further 10% in 2025, ending the year between 6,500 and 6,800 – see Figure 1. In our view, the global economy is already skating on thin...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Dec 5, 2024 | News
What a Trump presidency could mean for financial markets Eight years ago, there was widespread uncertainty as the recently elected Donald Trump began serving his first term as the president of the United States (“US”). Little was known about if and how he would...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Nov 4, 2024 | News
The cause of China’s struggles One look at Figure 1 and it becomes apparent just how elevated China’s national savings rate is versus the rest of the world. Their gross national savings are close to double that of most other major economies. Simply put, China’s...