by John Sparks | Oct 6, 2026 | News
One shock, many responses Figure 1 – Brent is 40% above pre-conflict levels. Figure 1 – Brent is 40% above pre-conflict levels. Brent crude has averaged above $94 a barrel since March, about 40% above its pre-conflict level – see Figure 1. Global shares are up nearly...
by John Sparks | Sep 3, 2026 | News
The tide comes in anyway The United States Treasury announced in August that it would increase the size of its ongoing repurchases of long-maturity securities, and the reaction was a near-universal disdain. The 30-year benchmark has been pushed to its highest level...
by John Sparks | Aug 6, 2026 | News
The second leg is the one that bites Brent crude opened July at $72 a barrel and closed the 23rd at $99. But in reality, this round trip is not the focus of the oil story. What matters more right now is the crack spread, as the products refined out of that barrel have...
by John Sparks | Jul 2, 2026 | News
A 2-year retrospective on the US Halfway through 2024, the 3-month average of the US unemployment rate rose 50 basis points above its 12-month low, triggering the Sahm rule. Post-1970 this breach has always, without fail, led to an eventual recession. Fast forward to...
by John Sparks | Jun 4, 2026 | News
Changing of the guard Following the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve (“Fed”) Chair, the US central bank may soon see its most significant philosophical shift since the Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”). Ignoring the short-term policy action that may...
by John Sparks | May 7, 2026 | News
2026: The year of scarcity It is hardly an exaggeration to say that the primary driver of equities year-to-date has been a scarcity trade, most notably in oil and AI infrastructure. Figure 1 – Energy and IT have been the main drivers of upward revisions to earnings...