Market Synopsis – July 2024

Market Synopsis – July 2024

We have reached the kink We have discussed and used the kinked Phillips curve framework to interpret the direction of the US economy and financial markets since the start of the pandemic. For example, in 2023, the kinked Phillips curve indicated that “immaculate...
Market Synopsis – June 2024

Market Synopsis – June 2024

Unpacking the requirements for a soft landing Former vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, once said, “I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do.” With this in mind, we will look...
Market Synopsis – May 2024

Market Synopsis – May 2024

What the conflict between Iran and Israel means for oil On the 13th of April, Iran attacked Israel with a barrage of drones and missiles. Israel and its allies intercepted 99% of the projectiles. Less than one-week later Israel responded, firing several air-launched...
Market Synopsis – April 2024

Market Synopsis – April 2024

For the first time in 17 years Japan raises rates In 1991, the Bank of Japan (“BoJ”) started cutting interest rates in response to falling asset prices. They continued to do so until 1999. In the 25 years since then, Japan has maintained their near-zero interest...
Market Synopsis – March 2024

Market Synopsis – March 2024

An economy is much like a glass of water With the US economy expanding 2.5% in 2023 and the S&P 500 rising over 24%, many market participants believe that a recession is a distant and unlikely event. As year-on-year inflation measures continue to recede, a soft...