by alex@integrityam.co.za | Oct 3, 2024 | News
A “Wile E. Coyote” moment Last week the US Federal Reserve (“Fed”) cut rates by 50 bps, and market participants cheered in response. In fact, the market’s reaction was similar to January 2001 and September 2007, months that marked the start of two of the largest...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Sep 3, 2024 | News
Strictly speaking, the Sahm rule was not triggered Last month global news was awash with headlines declaring that the Sahm rule had been triggered and that a US recession was upon us. Strictly speaking, the unemployment rate did not increase enough to trigger the Sahm...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Aug 6, 2024 | News
Here comes the pain On the 31st of July US Federal Reserve (“Fed”) Chair Jerome Powell stated that if the economy continues on its current path a cut to the bank’s key rate “could be on the table” at the policymakers’ next meeting in September. The...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Jul 2, 2024 | News
We have reached the kink We have discussed and used the kinked Phillips curve framework to interpret the direction of the US economy and financial markets since the start of the pandemic. For example, in 2023, the kinked Phillips curve indicated that “immaculate...