by alex@integrityam.co.za | Jan 9, 2025 | News
An out of consensus outlook for 2025 At present, the consensus outlook of the investment community is for the S&P 500 to rise a further 10% in 2025, ending the year between 6,500 and 6,800 – see Figure 1. In our view, the global economy is already skating on thin...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Dec 5, 2024 | News
What a Trump presidency could mean for financial markets Eight years ago, there was widespread uncertainty as the recently elected Donald Trump began serving his first term as the president of the United States (“US”). Little was known about if and how he would...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Nov 4, 2024 | News
The cause of China’s struggles One look at Figure 1 and it becomes apparent just how elevated China’s national savings rate is versus the rest of the world. Their gross national savings are close to double that of most other major economies. Simply put, China’s...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Oct 3, 2024 | News
A “Wile E. Coyote” moment Last week the US Federal Reserve (“Fed”) cut rates by 50 bps, and market participants cheered in response. In fact, the market’s reaction was similar to January 2001 and September 2007, months that marked the start of two of the largest...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Sep 3, 2024 | News
Strictly speaking, the Sahm rule was not triggered Last month global news was awash with headlines declaring that the Sahm rule had been triggered and that a US recession was upon us. Strictly speaking, the unemployment rate did not increase enough to trigger the Sahm...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Aug 6, 2024 | News
Here comes the pain On the 31st of July US Federal Reserve (“Fed”) Chair Jerome Powell stated that if the economy continues on its current path a cut to the bank’s key rate “could be on the table” at the policymakers’ next meeting in September. The...