by alex@integrityam.co.za | Jul 2, 2024 | News
We have reached the kink We have discussed and used the kinked Phillips curve framework to interpret the direction of the US economy and financial markets since the start of the pandemic. For example, in 2023, the kinked Phillips curve indicated that “immaculate...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Jun 4, 2024 | News
Unpacking the requirements for a soft landing Former vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, once said, “I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do.” With this in mind, we will look...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | May 3, 2024 | News
What the conflict between Iran and Israel means for oil On the 13th of April, Iran attacked Israel with a barrage of drones and missiles. Israel and its allies intercepted 99% of the projectiles. Less than one-week later Israel responded, firing several air-launched...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Apr 4, 2024 | News
For the first time in 17 years Japan raises rates In 1991, the Bank of Japan (“BoJ”) started cutting interest rates in response to falling asset prices. They continued to do so until 1999. In the 25 years since then, Japan has maintained their near-zero interest...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Mar 5, 2024 | News
An economy is much like a glass of water With the US economy expanding 2.5% in 2023 and the S&P 500 rising over 24%, many market participants believe that a recession is a distant and unlikely event. As year-on-year inflation measures continue to recede, a soft...
by alex@integrityam.co.za | Feb 6, 2024 | News
Two reasons the consensus view may be wrong We recognise that a soft-landing of the US economy has now become the consensus view among investors. However, we do not believe that the US Federal Reserve (“Fed”) will ease monetary policy to the extent that many investors...